Jets vs Stars Picks and Prediction – 5/18/2025

Winnipeg just stomped Dallas 4-0 to force a Game 6 back in Texas. The Jets now trail the series 3-2 but have two shutout wins in the last four games. Dallas has dropped two of the last three and just got blanked on the road. The puck drops Saturday night at 6:00 PM ET from American Airlines Center. Hit the ice running with our NHL picks.

The Winnipeg Jets have been hot and cold in this series, but when they win, they dominate. Connor Hellebuyck was lights out in Game 5 with a shutout, and the Jets' forecheck kept Dallas chasing all night. In the previous trip to Dallas, Winnipeg fell short 3-1 and 5-2, so this Game 6 will test if they can bring that Game 5 energy on the road. Kyle Connor continues to be the offensive engine, and the Jets are 2-1 when he gets on the scoresheet.

Defensively, Winnipeg's numbers speak volumes. The Jets lead the league in goals against per game at 2.32 and boast a stellar penalty kill rate of 79.4%. Hellebuyck is the backbone with a 2.01 GAA and .925 SV%, and there’s zero injury trouble on the roster. Offensively, the Jets average 3.35 goals per game, powered by Connor’s 41 goals and 97 points. The power play is efficient at 28.9%. 

Dallas has had control of this series, but now faces real pressure after a brutal Game 5 loss. They looked flat, slow, and disconnected in that 4-0 defeat. At home, the Stars are usually solid with a 28-10-3 record, but they’ve shown cracks when Winnipeg sets the tone early. Jason Robertson and Matt Duchene have been consistent, but the offense got nothing going last game.

Defensively, the Stars have given up 2.71 goals per game, and while Jake Oettinger has been solid with a 2.59 GAA and .909 SV%, he needs help clearing rebounds. The penalty kill is slightly better at 82%, and they’ve allowed 41 power-play goals, matching Winnipeg in that stat. Offensively, they’re right with the Jets at 3.35 goals per game and shoot more on average. Duchene’s 82 points lead Dallas, and Robertson adds 35 goals. With Nils Lundkvist out, Dallas is thin on the blue line.

The Jets are riding the momentum after two 4-0 shutouts, and Connor Hellebuyck is the hottest goalie in the series. Winnipeg's defensive edge (2.32 GAA vs 2.71) and power play advantage (28.9% vs 22%) give them the tools to grind out a road win. They’ve proven they can blank Dallas and should ride that confidence into Game 6. Final Score Prediction: Winnipeg Jets wins 3-2.