Canadiens vs Senators Picks and Prediction – 4/11/2025

Montreal is red hot right now, riding a six-game win streak after shutting down Detroit 4-1. The Canadiens are 39-30-9 and head into Ottawa looking to stay sharp before the postseason. Ottawa just got slapped around by Columbus in a 5-2 loss but have been strong at home, going 24-11-2 at the Canadian Tire Centre. This one’s shaping up as a gritty divisional battle. Hit the ice running with our NHL picks.

The Canadiens have been playing their best hockey lately, taking down playoff-level opponents like Florida of late. Cole Caufield has been leading the charge with 37 goals while Nick Suzuki is doing it all with 86 points and 58 assists. They’ve been finding ways to win close games, and that clutch factor is hard to ignore. But they'll have to stay sharp without Rafael Harvey-Pinard, who’s out, and both Emil Heineman and Ivan Demidov are questionable.

Defensively, Montreal is still shaky, allowing 3.21 goals per game. They give up nearly 29 shots per game, and discipline is a concern with 722 penalty minutes. Goalie Samuel Montembeault has held strong through it all with 30 wins, a 2.81 goals against average and a .902 save percentage. The penalty kill has been solid at 80.9%, and the power play is clicking at 20.6%, enough to make opponents pay.

Ottawa has dropped two of its last three but has been rock-solid at home. Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk have carried the offense with 72 and 66 points, respectively. Stutzle has 51 assists, while Tkachuk’s power play presence is dangerous with 14 goals on the man advantage. They’ve won three straight at home before the Columbus letdown and could bounce back quickly with playoff implications in sight.

The Senators are stronger defensively than the Habs, allowing just 2.80 goals per game and managing to stay disciplined with only 665 penalty minutes. Linus Ullmark has been a steady force in net with a .911 save percentage and 2.68 GAA. Ottawa's power play is slightly better at 23%, though the penalty kill has struggled at 77.6%. With Tkachuk listed day-to-day, his availability could shift the balance, but this team is no pushover at home.

Montreal’s win streak has been impressive, but Ottawa has been excellent at home and is simply the more balanced team statistically. Ottawa allows fewer goals, takes more shots, and has the edge on special teams. Linus Ullmark has a better save percentage than Samuel Montembeault, and if Brady Tkachuk plays, that’s a big plus. Final Score Prediction: Ottawa Senators win 4-2.