Oilers vs Stars Picks and Prediction – 5/22/2025

Tomorrow, the Western Conference Final gets underway in Dallas as the Edmonton Oilers (48-29-5) take on the Dallas Stars (50-26-6) at 6:00 PM ET. The Oilers come in red-hot after shutting out Vegas in back-to-back games, including a 1-0 OT thriller to clinch. The Stars outlasted Winnipeg in seven games, grinding out a 2-1 OT win on Saturday to clinch the series. Hit the ice running with our NHL picks.

Edmonton comes into Game 1 with momentum, having won four of its last five and two straight shutouts behind Stuart Skinner. Leon Draisaitl is the offensive engine with 52 goals and 106 points, while Connor McDavid finished the regular season with a league-leading 74 assists. The Oilers generate 3.16 goals per game, firing 32 shots per night. Calvin Pickard is out through May, so Skinner (.896 save percentage, 2.81 GAA) will carry the load until then.

Defensively, the Oilers allow 2.87 goals per game, and the penalty kill is solid at 78.2%. They’ve held opponents to 27 shots per game. Edmonton will miss Mattias Ekholm on the blue line, who’s expected back by May 25, while Alec Regula remains out long-term. Discipline is a concern with 607 penalty minutes this season, but the team has allowed just 45 power-play goals.

Dallas has the home-ice advantage and a 28-10-3 record at American Airlines Center. They’ve won three of the last four, powered by Jason Robertson and Matt Duchene, who leads the Stars with 82 points. Dallas scores 3.35 goals per game, slightly better than Edmonton, and leans on a more balanced attack with fewer penalty minutes. The power play clicks at 22%, with 55 total PPG this season.

On defense, the Stars are better overall with just 2.71 goals allowed per game and a stronger penalty kill (82%). Goalie Jake Oettinger leads the crease with a .909 save percentage and 2.59 GAA, while Casey DeSmith has been just as sharp in relief. Nils Lundkvist remains on long-term injured reserve, but the rest of the lineup is healthy heading into Game 1.

Rolling into Game 1, Edmonton is the hotter team and has proven it can win on the road, going 23-16-2 away from home. With Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid leading a high-octane offense and Stuart Skinner showing up when it matters, the Oilers look like the better bet in a tight series opener. Final Score Prediction: Edmonton Oilers win 4-3.