Red Wings vs Lightning Picks and Prediction – 4/11/2025

The Detroit Red Wings (36-34-7) head into Amalie Arena to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (45-26-7) in a game that could shake up the final playoff picture. Detroit dropped its last game to Montreal 4-1 after picking up tight wins over Florida and Carolina, while Tampa Bay just fell short in overtime to Toronto, 4-3. Both clubs have had ups and downs lately but have plenty on the line. Hit the ice running with our NHL picks.

Detroit has won three of its last five but showed some inconsistency, especially on the road, where the team sits at 15-18-4. The offense has leaned on Lucas Raymond, who has racked up 75 points, and Alex DeBrincat, who leads the team with 35 goals. Special teams have been a bright spot — Detroit is hitting on 27.6% of its power plays — but the team’s overall scoring has dipped to just 2.81 goals per game.

Defensively, the Red Wings are allowing 3.14 goals per game and holding opponents to under 29 shots. Goaltending has been split between Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon,, with Talbot carrying the best numbers (2.85 GAA, .905 SV%). Injuries include Erik Gustafsson, who will be out until next week. The penalty kill has been a big concern, sitting at just 69.9%.

Tampa Bay continues to thrive at home with a 27-8-3 record. The Lightning offense is firing, with Nikita Kucherov leading the NHL with 116 points, while Brayden Point has scored 41 goals, including 16 on the power play. In the last five, Tampa went 2-2-1, picking up a dominant win against the Rangers but slipping against Toronto and Buffalo. Still, the team is producing 3.55 goals a night and remains lethal with the puck.

Defensively, Tampa Bay is allowing just 2.60 goals per game and controlling the penalty kill at 81.3%. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been outstanding in net with a 2.14 GAA and a .922 save percentage. The Lightning are physical and draw a lot of penalties, sitting at 641 PIM. Jake Guentzel and Luke Glendening are both day-to-day but are expected back for this one.

The Lightning are just too strong at home and have an elite goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy backing them up. Detroit’s power play might find some chances, but with a 69.9% penalty kill, they’ll struggle to slow down Kucherov and Point. Tampa’s firepower, strong defensive numbers, and home record make the difference. Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning wins and covers 4-2.