Stars vs Avalanche Picks and Prediction – 5/2/2025

The Dallas Stars lead the series 3-2 heading into Game 6 at Ball Arena in Denver, with puck drop set for 7:30 PM ET. Dallas is coming off a dominant 6-2 win in Game 5, while Colorado tries to bounce back at home, where the Avalanche went 26-12-3 this season. Dallas holds the momentum, but the Avalanche are dangerous when their backs are against the wall. Hit the ice running with our NHL picks.

Dallas has taken three of the last four games and looked locked in during the last win, putting six past the Avalanche in a statement game. Matt Duchene continues to be clutch, tallying 82 points on the season with 30 goals and 52 assists. Jason Robertson leads the team in goals with 35, but he’s ruled out until May 3, which could impact the Stars’ offensive options. Jake Oettinger has been solid in net with 36 wins, a 2.59 GAA, and a .909 save percentage.

Defensively, Dallas holds the edge, allowing just 2.71 goals per game. They also own a penalty kill of 82.0%, stronger than Colorado’s. The Stars also have a better power play than most give them credit for, converting 22.0% of the time. Dallas has eight short-handed goals on the year, showing they can create offense in any scenario. Injuries to defensemen Miro Heiskanen and Nils Lundkvist do leave some holes on the blue line.

Colorado was outplayed in Game 5 and now faces elimination. Nathan MacKinnon remains the Avalanche’s top weapon with 116 points, including 32 goals and 84 assists. But he’ll need more support from others to turn this around. The Avalanche power play has been lethal, scoring at a 24.8% rate, but that didn't show up when it mattered in the last game.

The Avalanche allow 2.82 goals per game, slightly more than Dallas, and the penalty kill sits at 79.8%. Goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood owns a 2.55 GAA and .912 save percentage, solid but not unbeatable. Colorado's defense must limit penalties and cut down on Dallas' scoring chances, especially considering the Stars are efficient even when short-handed. Missing blue-liners like Sean Behrens and Tucker Poolman further challenge Colorado’s back end.

Dallas has dominated three of the last four matchups and is winning key battles across all areas of the ice. The Stars' defense is sharper, and Oettinger’s steady goaltending gives them the edge. Even without Jason Robertson, Dallas has enough scoring punch, while Colorado’s special teams and defense have faltered. Final Score Prediction: Dallas Stars win 4-2.