Stars vs Avalanche Picks and Prediction – 4/27/2025

Dallas holds a 2-1 series lead after edging Colorado 2-1 in OT last game. The Stars have now won back-to-back thrillers following an ugly 5-1 loss in Game 1. Colorado came into this round hot but suddenly finds itself down despite home ice and a solid record. This Game 4 in Denver could swing the series. Hit the ice running with our NHL picks.

Dallas is riding some clutch play lately. After dropping Game 1 badly, the Stars bounced back with two straight OT wins, showing poise. Matt Duchene has been solid all year, leading with 82 points, while Jason Robertson tops the team in goals with 35. But Robertson is sidelined until May 3, a massive loss. 

Jake Oettinger is holding it down in net, posting a 2.59 GAA and a .909 save percentage. Dallas averages 3.35 goals per game, gives up 2.71, and is clicking on the power play at 22%. Defensively, the Stars limit opponents to 29 shots per game and kill penalties at 82%. However, losing Miro Heiskanen and Nils Lundkvist thins out the blue line, which could be a big issue in this one.

Colorado now faces pressure at home. They won Game 1 convincingly but have since dropped two straight in OT, including a painful loss at Ball Arena. Nathan MacKinnon has carried the load all season with 116 points and 32 goals, and he’ll need to do more of the same with Ross Colton listed as day-to-day. Goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood brings stability with a 2.55 GAA and a .912 save percentage, and the Avs need him to be sharp again. 

Colorado’s offense is still producing 3.33 goals per game, and they’re dangerous on the man advantage, converting 24.8% of the time. Defensively, the Avs allow just 25.9 shots a night, but penalty killing sits at 79.8% and needs to improve fast. Tucker Poolman and Sean Behrens being out doesn’t help a thin blue line either.

Time to back the Avalanche with their backs against the wall. The Stars are missing key pieces like Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen, and have won two straight coin-flip OT games. That’s not sustainable. MacKinnon should be the difference maker on home ice, especially with Colorado’s stronger special teams and tough blueline. Final Score Prediction: Colorado Avalanche win 4-2.