Stars vs Avalanche Picks and Prediction – 4/24/2025

The Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche are tied 1-1 in this intense Western Conference first-round matchup heading into Game 3 at Ball Arena. Dallas bounced back with a gritty 4-3 OT win after getting smoked 5-1 in the series opener. Colorado had won three straight before that loss, including a solid 4-2 win in Anaheim. This one’s set for 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday. Hit the ice running with our NHL picks.

Dallas snapped a brutal eight-game skid with that Game 2 overtime win, getting the boost they badly needed. Matt Duchene has quietly led the offense all year with 82 points, while Jason Robertson, who’s out until April 28, still leads in goals with 35. Injuries are mounting a bit for Dallas with Miro Heiskanen and Nils Lundkvist also sidelined. This game could lean on the goaltending of Jake Oettinger, who posted a .909 save percentage and 2.59 GAA across 36 wins.

Defensively, the Stars have stayed solid with a 2.71 goals against average and an 82.0% penalty kill rate. The power play is hitting at 22.0% thanks to 55 goals, and the group doesn’t take a ton of penalties. The issue lately has been keeping the puck out of their own net during 5-on-5 stretches. Dallas is giving up nearly 29 shots a night, and without Heiskanen, they’re thin on the blue line. Chris DeSmith might get a look as well, with his 2.59 GAA and .915 SV%.

Colorado dropped Game 2 in OT but still looks sharp overall. Nathan MacKinnon continues to drive the offense with 116 points, including 84 assists and 32 goals. The Avs will need more from guys like Ross Colton, who is day-to-day, but depth has been a strength. At home, they’ve been reliable all year with a 26-12-3 mark and solid momentum from that Game 1 win.

Defensively, the Avalanche hold a 2.82 GAA and are giving up just 25.9 shots per game, second-best among playoff teams. The power play is slightly better than Dallas’ at 24.8%, but the PK is a bit shaky at 79.8%. Goalie MacKenzie Blackwood has been steady with a .912 SV% and 2.55 GAA, while Scott Wedgewood provides a strong backup presence. Colorado needs to tighten up defensively late in games, but home ice could be a big factor.

The Stars escaped with a win last time out, but Colorado’s overall play, especially at home, gives them the edge. MacKinnon is on another level, and with Dallas missing key pieces, the Avalanche should capitalize. Add in better shot control and special teams, and this looks like a bounce-back win for Colorado. Final Score Prediction: Colorado Avalanche win 4-2.