Avalanche vs Stars Picks and Prediction – 5/4/2025

The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars head into a dramatic Game 7 showdown in Dallas with the series tied at 3-3. Colorado forced the decider with a dominant 7-4 win in Game 6, bouncing back after being outscored 6-2 in Game 5. Both teams have traded wins, and this final game at American Airlines Center will decide who advances. Puck drop is at 6:00 PM ET. Hit the ice running with our NHL picks.

Colorado responded with urgency in Game 6, putting up seven goals behind Nathan MacKinnon's three-point night and a solid effort from goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood. The Avalanche have looked better offensively in recent games, especially at home, but now face the challenge of closing out on the road. They are 23-17-1 away this season, and they’ve proven they can win in Dallas, stealing Game 4 with a 4-0 shutout.

Defensively, Colorado gives up 2.82 goals per game and leans heavily on Blackwood, who holds a 2.55 GAA and a .912 save percentage. The penalty kill sits at 79.8%, and the power play converts at 24.8%—one of the league’s top marks. MacKinnon leads with 116 points, while Colorado also gets key production from its special teams, posting 58 power-play goals. Injuries include Ross Colton and Sean Behrens, while Tucker Poolman remains on long-term IR.

Dallas dropped Game 6 on the road, giving up seven goals despite previously putting up a dominant 6-2 win in Game 5. The Stars have been excellent at home, finishing 28-10-3 at American Airlines Center, and won both Game 2 and Game 5 in Dallas. Matt Duchene and Jason Robertson have been leading the scoring, though Robertson’s status is day-to-day.

Defensively, Dallas has allowed just 2.71 goals per game and owns an 82.0% penalty kill, slightly stronger than Colorado's. Goaltender Jake Oettinger has a 2.59 GAA and .909 save percentage, and he’ll be key in trying to slow down the Avalanche attack. Dallas has 55 power-play goals, but a 22.0% conversion rate lags behind Colorado. Miro Heiskanen is day-to-day, which could be a factor.

Colorado’s offense has broken through, scoring 11 goals over the last two games, and MacKinnon is on a tear. The power play has been more effective, and they’ve shown they can win in Dallas. Even with Blackwood facing pressure on the road, his steady numbers hold up. This one’s tight, but the Avalanche have the edge. Final Score Prediction: Colorado Avalanche wins 4-3.