Mariners vs Rangers Picks and Prediction – 5/3/2025

Seattle brings an 18-12 record into Arlington, riding a 4-game win streak, including a 9-3 win over the Angels. Texas sits at 16-16 after dropping four of the last five, including a 3-0 shutout loss to the A’s. The pitching matchup has Luis Castillo (3-2, 3.62 ERA) facing Patrick Corbin (2-1, 3.79 ERA) in what should be a tight battle between two solid arms. Elevate your MLB game with our top-notch MLB picks.

Seattle is rolling lately, scoring 35 runs over the last four games while sweeping the Angels and finishing off the Marlins series strong. Jorge Polanco has been scorching hot with 25 RBIs and 9 homers while hitting .384. Cal Raleigh leads the team with 10 homers, and J.P. Crawford is getting on base at a .423 clip. The Mariners already swept the Rangers earlier this season and will look to stay hot with a more consistent offensive unit.

Seattle owns a 3.74 team ERA and has held opponents to a .244 batting average. The bullpen is a bit banged up with Matt Brash and Trevor Gott both on the IL, but Castillo has allowed just 3 homers and fanned 28 in 32.1 innings. Opponents are only hitting .244 off Mariners pitchers, and the team’s 1.31 WHIP is manageable. 

Texas has dropped four of the last five games, including back-to-back beatdowns against the A’s, and the bats have gone cold again. Adolis Garcia, hitting just .218, leads the team with 15 RBIs, while Wyatt Langford has been the most consistent hitter with a .296 average and six homers. The Rangers were dominated by Seattle earlier this season and have struggled to get anything going against the Mariners’ rotation.

Texas has a 3.26 ERA and has been decent at limiting damage with a .227 opponent batting average and a low 1.14 WHIP. Corbin hasn’t gone deep into games (just 19 innings), but he’s kept the ball in the park with only three homers allowed. Still, the bullpen has been shaky, and the absence of Corey Seager and others from the lineup is hurting the balance on both sides of the ball.

Seattle is the hotter team with a better offense, more momentum, and a pitcher in Castillo who has been stronger through longer outings than Corbin. The Mariners have outscored Texas 17-5 in the first three meetings this year and hold the edge in nearly every team stat: more runs (152 vs 103), higher OBP (.339 vs .285), and more power (45 HRs vs 30). Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners win 6-3.