Padres vs Blue Jays Picks and Prediction – 5/21/2025

The Padres and Blue Jays square off at Rogers Centre on May 21 at 5:07 PM EST. Kevin Gausman (3-4, 4.59 ERA) gets the nod for Toronto while San Diego sends Randy Vasquez (3-3, 3.45 ERA) to the mound. San Diego is 27-18 and coming off three straight losses to Seattle, including a 6-1 loss on May 18. Toronto sits at 22-24 and also lost the most recent game, a 3-2 defeat to Detroit. Elevate your MLB game with our top-notch MLB picks.

San Diego had been trending in the right direction before running into a wall against Seattle, managing just three total runs over the weekend. The offense is driven by Fernando Tatis Jr., who leads the team with 12 home runs, 27 RBI, and a .304 average. Manny Machado is right behind, hitting .317 with a .389 OBP. 

On the mound, the Padres have been sharp most of the year with a team ERA of 3.39 and a WHIP of 1.17. Vasquez has been solid over 44.1 innings, holding opponents to a .218 average despite a high walk rate (26 BB). The bullpen has held up even with injuries to Matt Waldron, Yu Darvish, and Bryan Hoeing. 

Toronto has been up and down all season and has now lost four of its last five, with only a 2-1 win over Detroit as a bright spot. The bats haven’t done much damage recently, with just 13 runs in the last five outings. Daulton Varsho leads the team with 6 home runs, but Bo Bichette is doing the most damage, hitting .292 with 22 RBI. 

Pitching is the bigger concern. Gausman has been inconsistent with a 4.59 ERA over 51 innings, though his WHIP is a sharp 1.06 thanks to just 12 walks. Toronto’s team ERA of 4.31 shows the struggles on the mound, and the bullpen is hurting with multiple arms on the IL including Ryan Burr and Erik Swanson. The Jays are allowing a .241 opponent batting average.

This matchup leans San Diego’s way thanks to stronger recent pitching and better top-line offensive production. Tatis and Machado are in much better form than anyone on Toronto’s roster, and Vasquez has shown better command than Gausman despite the higher WHIP. The Padres also hold the edge in team ERA and have a slightly stronger OBP. If the bullpen holds, San Diego should take this one. Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres wins 5-3.