Mets vs Phillies Picks and Prediction – 6/21/2025

The New York Mets (45-30) head to Citizens Bank Park to face the Philadelphia Phillies (45-30) on Saturday at 5:15 PM ET. Both teams share the same record, but the momentum couldn’t be more different. Griffin Canning (6-3, 3.80 ERA) starts for New York while rookie Mick Abel (2-0, 2.21 ERA) takes the mound for Philly. The Mets lost 7-1 to Atlanta on Wednesday, while the Phillies edged Miami 2-1 to win that series. Elevate your MLB game with our top-notch MLB picks.

New York is ice cold, dropping six straight while scoring just 14 runs in the six losses. Pete Alonso continues to do it all with a .291 average, 17 homers, and 63 RBIs, but he’s getting little help. The team’s hitting just .245 overall with a .416 slugging and has failed to score more than four runs in any of the last five games.

The Mets’ strength remains on the mound with a team ERA of 3.05. Canning has 63 strikeouts in 68.2 innings, but his 1.40 WHIP and 33 walks are a concern. The bullpen’s been solid, but injuries to Frankie Montas, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos hurt depth. If Canning doesn’t go deep, it could get rough for the bullpen against Philly’s lineup.

The Phillies have won four of five and are swinging it well. Kyle Schwarber leads with 23 home runs and 54 RBIs, while Trea Turner adds consistency at .300 with a .359 OBP. Philadelphia has a .256 team average and 348 total runs, outpacing New York in key offensive categories.

On the mound, the Phillies have a 3.87 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Abel has impressed with just four walks in 20.1 innings. Despite being without Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola, Philly’s depth has held up. The Phillies’ 24-13 home record adds another layer of confidence heading into this one.

The Phillies have the edge in momentum, home-field advantage, and lineup depth. The Mets aren’t scoring, and Canning’s control issues could get exposed. Abel has been locked in early, and the Phillies have more ways to win right now. Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies win 5-3.