Mets vs Red Sox Picks and Prediction – 5/21/2025

The Mets and Red Sox face off again at Fenway Park on May 21 at 4:45 PM ET, with Tylor Megill (3-4, 3.74 ERA) on the mound for New York and Garrett Crochet (4-3, 2.00 ERA) getting the nod for Boston. Boston took the opener 3-1, while the Mets dropped a third straight game. New York sits at 29-19 while Boston is trying to get back to .500 at 24-25. Elevate your MLB game with our top-notch MLB picks.

New York is in a skid, having lost four of its last five, including back-to-back road series to the Yankees and Red Sox. The bats have been cold, scoring just eight runs across those five games. Megill has pitched decently but lacks run support. He gave up three earned runs in his last outing and has allowed 22 walks through 43.1 innings.

The Mets' pitching staff ranks second in the league with a 2.87 ERA and has limited opponents to a .230 batting average. But even with the second-best WHIP in baseball at 1.27, the offense is dragging. Pete Alonso (.301 AVG, 9 HR, 37 RBI) has done the most damage, while Francisco Lindor (9 HR, 28 RBI) provides pop but hasn't hit consistently. 

Boston snapped a two-game skid by taking game one behind timely hitting. The Red Sox have gone 3-2 over the last five and are showing signs of offensive life despite recent struggles. Crochet is dealing—his 2.00 ERA over 63 innings with 73 strikeouts is elite, and he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last five starts.

The Red Sox pitching is the weak point overall, with a 4.09 team ERA and .258 opponent batting average. Still, the offense is potent, led by Alex Bregman (.303 AVG, 11 HR, 35 RBI) and Rafael Devers (9 HR, 38 RBI). At home, the Sox are 13-11 and average over 4.7 runs per game at Fenway. While Walker Buehler remains out, the rotation has found some rhythm thanks to Crochet’s dominance.

Crochet is the difference here. With a 2.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, he's been unhittable at times, while Megill has been shaky on the road. Boston has the better offense (.254 AVG, 237 runs) and more home run power (60 HR to New York’s 52). The Mets can’t score right now, and the Red Sox should take advantage again. Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox wins 5-2.