Marlins vs Padres Picks and Prediction – 5/28/2025

The Miami Marlins (21-30) take on the San Diego Padres (29-22) at Petco Park on Tuesday night at 7:40 PM EST. Max Meyer (3-4, 4.15 ERA) gets the ball for the Marlins, facing off against Stephen Kolek (2-1, 2.84 ERA) for the Padres. Miami comes off a 3-0 win over the Angels, while San Diego just beat Atlanta 5-3. Both squads are riding some momentum heading into this one. Elevate your MLB game with our top-notch MLB picks.

Miami picked up back-to-back wins against the Angels after getting torched in a series against the Cubs. In the last five games, the Marlins have gone 3-2, with pitching finally showing signs of life. Meyer has been solid lately, allowing two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts, and will need to keep the ball in the yard after giving up nine homers already this year. The Marlins' offense is leaning hard on Kyle Stowers, who leads the club with 10 homers, a .309 average, and 31 RBI.

On the mound, the Marlins still struggle, with a team ERA of 5.31 and a WHIP of 1.45. Opponents are hitting .263 against them, and the bullpen has been spotty all year. Injuries continue to be a problem—Dane Myers, Woo-Suk Go, and Andrew Nardi are just a few key names on the IL. Miami's staff has allowed 195 walks and lacks control in big spots. If Meyer can't go deep into the game, it's tough to trust the relief crew to hold a lead.

San Diego is 16-8 at home and just took a series from the Braves, winning two of three. Kolek gets the start and has been impressive in limited innings, posting a 2.84 ERA across 25.1 innings. His WHIP sits at 1.26, and he's been efficient at limiting damage, allowing just three homers all year. San Diego’s lineup has solid depth, with Fernando Tatis Jr. leading the club in home runs (12) and Manny Machado hitting .321. This offense can get hot quickly.

The Padres’ pitching staff ranks among the league’s best with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. They’ve allowed fewer walks (167) and boast 449 strikeouts. Opposing hitters are hitting just .224 against them. Even with Yu Darvish on the IL, the rotation and bullpen remain reliable. With solid defense and timely hitting, the Padres are playing like a team ready to make a push in the NL West.

San Diego’s dominant pitching and strong home record make them the better bet here. Kolek’s steady presence on the mound, combined with a balanced lineup led by Machado and Tatis Jr., gives them the edge. Miami’s bullpen issues and shaky defense are too much to ignore, even with Meyer showing flashes. Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres win 6-3.