Marlins vs Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction – 6/28/2025

The Miami Marlins (33-45) head to Chase Field on Thursday night to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (41-39) with first pitch at 7:40 PM ET. Miami enters riding a three-game win streak, most recently beating the Giants 8-5 in extra innings. Arizona dropped the last one 7-3 to the White Sox. On the mound, Eury Perez (0-2, 6.17 ERA) gets the ball for the Marlins against Merrill Kelly (7-3, 3.39 ERA) for the D-backs. Elevate your MLB game with our top-notch MLB picks.

Miami is coming off its best stretch in a while with three straight wins, including back-to-back victories in San Francisco. Eury Perez hasn’t looked sharp since returning, lasting just 11.2 innings over three starts while giving up 12 hits and walking seven. The Marlins have leaned on timely hitting and a bit of momentum lately, with Kyle Stowers driving in 35 runs and blasting 11 homers this season to lead the offense.

On the mound, the Marlins have a 4.85 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, both bottom-tier marks in the league. Opponents are hitting .258 against them, and the bullpen remains banged up with Ryan Weathers, Andrew Nardi, and Jesus Tinoco all sidelined. Xavier Edwards continues to pace the team with a .288 average, but consistency across the board is lacking. The Marlins’ 66 home runs are near the bottom of the league.

Arizona has split its last four games but lost 7-3 in Chicago the last time out. Merrill Kelly has been solid, giving up just 73 hits in 93 innings with 93 strikeouts and a sharp 1.05 WHIP. The Diamondbacks’ offense exploded for 10 runs earlier this week, and at home, they’ve been better overall, going 20-18 at Chase Field.

Defensively, the D-backs are more stable than Miami, holding a 4.73 team ERA and better command numbers. Arizona hitters have slugged 115 home runs this season and carry a higher team OBP (.331) and SLG (.448) than the Marlins. Eugenio Suarez is day-to-day but remains a major factor with 25 home runs and 67 RBI, while Josh Naylor’s .307 average leads the team. 

Merrill Kelly is simply in a better rhythm than Eury Perez right now, and Arizona’s offense offers way more pop. The D-backs have outscored Miami by nearly 100 runs this season (413 to 318) and have a clear power advantage with 115 home runs compared to Miami’s 66. Arizona also holds the edge in team ERA and WHIP, which should help them hold down a Marlins lineup that ranks near the bottom in slugging. Final Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks win 6-3.