Red Sox vs Phillies Picks and Prediction – 7/23/2025

The Boston Red Sox (54-48) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (57-43) at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday at 5:00 PM ET in a matchup featuring Lucas Giolito (6-2, 3.59 ERA) against Jesus Luzardo (8-5, 4.29 ERA). These teams just played on Sunday in a 10-inning battle that saw the Phillies walk off with a 3-2 win. Elevate your MLB game with our top-notch MLB picks.

Boston dropped three of its last four, with the offense going quiet in back-to-back losses. On Sunday, they managed just four hits in 10 innings and have scored only five runs over the last three. Before that, they put up six in a win against the Cubs but still haven't shown consistent production at the plate since the All-Star break.

Offensively, Boston is hitting .254 with 500 runs and 126 homers. Wilyer Abreu leads the team with 20 home runs, while Trevor Story has 59 RBI. Ceddanne Rafaela owns the team’s best average at .270. Giolito has been strong since returning from injury, with a 1.24 WHIP and just nine homers allowed in over 77 innings. The bullpen is hurting, though, with Hendriks, Kelly, Guerrero, Burdi, and Sandoval all on the IL, thinning out the relief depth heading into this one.

Philadelphia got a big extra-innings win over Boston on Sunday to bounce back from a blowout loss to the Angels. They've now won two of the last three and are 32-18 at home, one of the best records in the National League. The lineup can be streaky, but Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have carried the offensive load in recent weeks.

The Phillies are also batting .254 with 457 runs and 108 homers, but they’ve struck out 924 times compared to Boston’s 850. Schwarber leads the team with 32 HR and 74 RBI, while Turner tops the club with a .286 average. Luzardo has a 1.43 WHIP and has allowed 118 hits over 109 innings, showing vulnerability when behind in counts. The staff ERA is 3.71, slightly better than Boston's, and the Phillies’ bullpen is in a bit better shape, even with Alvarado suspended and Bohm out with an IL stint.

Boston has the better recent pitching with Giolito's 3.59 ERA and lower WHIP, and even though the bullpen is banged up, Philadelphia’s Luzardo has been more hittable with 118 hits in 109 innings and a higher WHIP. Boston's offense needs to wake up, but the talent is there, and they’ve hit more homers and scored more runs than Philadelphia. Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox win 5-3.