Orioles vs Braves Picks and Prediction – 7/4/2025

The Orioles and Braves meet on Independence Day at Truist Park with first pitch at 5:15 PM EST. Atlanta sends Charlie Morton (4-7, 5.63 ERA) to the mound, while Baltimore has yet to announce its starter. The Orioles are coming off a brutal 6-0 loss to Texas, while the Braves beat the Angels 8-3 in the most recent outing. Atlanta holds a slight home edge with a 24-18 record. Elevate your MLB game with our top-notch MLB picks.

Baltimore’s hitting has completely dried up lately, dropping two straight to Texas by a combined 16-2 margin. The Orioles have lost three of the last four and continue to struggle to find any consistency on the road, sitting at 18-27 away from Camden Yards. The offense still leans on Cedric Mullins (12 HR, 39 RBI), but his .213 average speaks volumes about this group’s inconsistency. Ryan O’Hearn has been a bright spot with a .294 average.

On the mound, Baltimore’s 5.01 team ERA and 1.43 WHIP are both well below league average, and they’ve allowed 101 home runs this year. The bullpen is thinned out with Rodolfo Martinez and Cody Poteet on the IL. Opponents are batting .271 against Orioles pitchers, and they've already walked 280 batters on the year. 

The Braves snapped a two-game skid with a solid win over the Angels and have gone 3-2 in the last five. At home, they’ve been decent with a 24-18 record, and with Charlie Morton on the hill, they’ll be banking on experience. Morton’s 5.63 ERA and 1.57 WHIP are a concern, and he's given up 79 hits and 10 homers in just 72 innings.

Atlanta’s pitching has carried the load most of the year with a 3.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a .234 opponent batting average. The lineup is led by Matt Olson (16 HR, 56 RBI) and Austin Riley (.274 avg), though the power numbers overall are down a bit from previous years. With multiple arms on the IL, including Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez, depth is being tested.

Baltimore looks overmatched on both sides. The Orioles’ 5.01 ERA, paired with a lineup hitting just .240 and scoring only 2 runs across the last two games, is tough to ignore. Morton has been shaky, but Atlanta’s 3.74 ERA and 775 strikeouts give them a clear edge. With Olson and Riley swinging the bat well, Atlanta should take care of business. Final Score Prediction: Braves win 6-3.