Wings vs Mercury Picks and Prediction – 6/12/2025

Phoenix hosts Dallas in a Commissioner’s Cup clash between two teams going in different directions. The Wings come in riding a five-game losing streak after an ugly 81-65 home loss to Minnesota, while the Mercury were knocked off 89-77 by Seattle, snapping a two-game win streak. Dallas sits at 1-9 overall and 1-4 on the road, while Phoenix is 6-4 and 5-2 at home. Take the WNBA by storm with our WNBA picks.

The Wings are struggling badly with no answers on either side of the ball. In the loss to Minnesota, Arike Ogunbowale scored 26, but the rest of the team looked flat. Dallas has now dropped nine of ten and hasn’t won since May 26. The offense is averaging 81.6 points a game, shooting just 41.2% from the field. Ogunbowale leads the way with 16.3 PPG on 34.6% shooting, and they’ve been missing key pieces like Paige Bueckers, Teaira McCowan, and Tyasha Harris due to injuries, which continues to kill their depth.

Defensively, it’s even worse. Dallas is giving up 88.1 points per game, one of the worst marks in the league. The Wings do lead Phoenix in rebounding with 36.3 boards per game, but they can’t stop anybody, ranking low in steals (7.3), blocks (4.8), and allowing big runs late. With so many injuries and no reliable second option to support Ogunbowale, this team is barely holding together.

Phoenix is at home and should feel confident despite falling to Seattle last game. They’ve been strong in the desert, winning five of seven, and had big games from Satou Sabally and Lexi Held during their recent wins. The Mercury offense scores 78.6 per contest, and they shoot a tick better than Dallas at 41.9% from the floor. Satou Sabally leads the charge with 20.5 points a game, hitting nearly 40% from the field and 80% at the line.

Defense is what’s keeping Phoenix competitive. They hold teams to 78.1 points a game and are better in the steal department at 8.7 per game. They are a bit light on the boards (32.6 RPG). Kahleah Copper being out until at least June 15 stings, but overall, they’ve got more active hands, better balance, and momentum compared to a struggling Dallas squad.

Phoenix is the better defensive team, playing at home, and facing a Dallas team that’s dropped five straight and is missing multiple starters. The Mercury allow 10 fewer points per game and shoot better across the board. With Sabally leading the offense and a much tighter defensive group, Phoenix gets it done here. Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury wins 85-77.