NFL Futures - Houston Texans 2023 Best Bets

The Houston Texans hope to be competitive this season after hiring its third head coach in as many years and taking former Ohio State QB CJ Stroud with the second pick in the most recent NFL Draft. DeMeco Ryans will lead the team into the 2023 season after six years as the defensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers. However, the expectations for Houston to contend for the title in the lowly AFC South Division are still low.

The Texans also had the third pick in the draft, taking Alabama defensive end Will Anderson, a two-time Bronko Nagurski Trophy winner who won a national championship with the Tide in 2020. Still, the NFL picks for Texans are one of the biggest longshots to win the Super Bowl with +20000 odds, ahead of only the Arizona Cardinals at +40000.

The Texans aren’t likely to contend for an AFC South title and are last in the division odds at +800. However, they have the sixth easiest schedule in the league but will have to play every team in the tough AFC North season. If Jacksonville struggles, Houston has a slim chance to reach the postseason. Without many solid offensive weapons, the team will likely struggle until Stroud gets more comfortable with the offense.

Houston begins the regular season on the road in Baltimore and has two divisional matchups against the Colts and the Jaguars before hosting the Steelers in Week Four. If they can survive that stretch with at least a couple of wins, the schedule gets much easier for the next four weeks until they travel to Cincinnati. Nevertheless, oddsmakers have them favored in just two of those eight games.

With the addition of three newcomers in Ryans, Stroud and Anderson, the Texans will unlikely have immediate success. Houston is projected to win 6.5 games in 2023, with odds at +115 for the over and -135 on the under. With the Jaguars as the best team in the division and the Colts looking to recover after last season’s disappointment, Houston may be able to improve on last season’s 3-13 mark but likely will fall short of a division title.

Bookmakers give the Texans better odds of making the playoffs at +475 than winning the division at +800 odds. While Houston will be helped by their easy schedule, their success hinges on how well the team’s new additions perform early in the season.

Houston is below Indianapolis in the division odds, but it’s favored in more games than the Colts this season. The team also has played well against division opponents, with a 6-5-1 record and a mark of 8-4 against the spread the last two seasons. Bettors might find more value in taking the Texans at +800 to win the division rather than +475 odds to make the playoffs, as the rest of the AFC’s divisions have several contenders.

If the Texans make the playoffs as division champions in 2023, the likely scenario is that they’ll lose to a stronger team in the Divisional Round, which currently has odds of +1600.