Week 7 – NFL Sunday Prop Bets – 10/23/22

The Bills, Eagles, Rams and Vikings are all off for Week 7, meaning two of the top four scoring offenses and a handful of the brightest stars in the game won’t be in action. Don’t fret because there are still plenty of good props to pick from in Sunday’s 12-game slate.

After another 2-for-3 performance, we’re going to avoid quarterbacks this week and go with a few running backs, a receiver and a tight end.

NFL Week 7 Best Player Props for Sunday - 10/23/22 

Nick Chubb, RB, Browns, OVER 71.5 rushing yards (-120) 

Robert Tonyan, TE, Packers, OVER 32.5 receiving yards (-114) 

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks, OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-115) 

Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders, OVER 81.5 rushing yards (-115) 

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins, OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-115)

Nick Chubb at Baltimore Ravens at 1 p.m.

Chubb has had 87-plus rushing yards in all but one game this season. He had just 12 carries for 56 yards in Week 6 against the Patriots, but that had much more to do with game flow than anything else. Chubb is averaging 5.9 yards a rush and had 17 or more carries in each of the first five games. Baltimore has allowed 4.4 yards per carry, about league average. We expect Chubb to be utilized far more often than he was in Week 6 and run for 72-plus yards.

Pick: Nick Chubb OVER 71.5 rushing yards 

Robert Tonyan at Washington Commanders at 1 p.m.  

Tonyan had by far his best game of the season in Week 6 against the Jets, catching 10 passes for 90 yards. Over the first five games, he only had 17 receptions for 129 yards. Tonyan’s 27 catches lead the team, one ahead of Romeo Doubs, and he is fourth on the team behind Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Doubs with 219 receiving yards. With Cobb out for Week 7, we like Tonyan’s chances to have his fourth game of the year with 33-plus yards.

Pick: Robert Tonyan OVER 32.5 receiving yards

Josh Jacobs vs. Houston Texans at 4:05 p.m.

In the two games prior to the Raiders’ Week 6 bye, Jacobs ran for 154 yards at Kansas City in Week 5 and 144 against Denver in Week 4. Jacobs was on the field for just over 80% of the Raiders’ plays in Week 5 after playing on just under 90% in Week 4, his two highest snap counts of the season. Houston’s defense has been unable to stop the run, allowing 164.8 rushing yards per game to rank 30th. It’s highly unlikely that Las Vegas would reduce Jacobs’ usage this week after the success he’s has the last two games against far better defenses.  

Pick: Josh Jacobs OVER 81.5 rushing yards 

Kenneth Walker III at Los Angeles Chargers at 4:25 p.m.

Walker carried the ball 21 times for 97 yards and a touchdown in his first game as Seattle’s lead running back in Week 6. He was on the field for nearly 70% of Seattle’s offensive plays, well ahead of DeeJay Dallas’ 34% usage rate. With Rashaad Penny out for the year, it appears Walker will be the workhorse back in Seattle. The Chargers have given up 750 rushing yards, 10th most in the league, and have allowed the second-most yards per carry at 5.6. We expect another big day from Walker in Week 7.  

Pick: Kenneth Walker III OVER 67.5 rushing yards 

Jaylen Waddle vs. Pittsburgh Steelers at 8:20 p.m.  

Tua Tagovailoa is expected to start at quarterback for Miami this week. In Tagovailo’s last full game played, Waddle was targeted 19 times and caught 11 of those passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns. The week prior he had four catches for 69 yards and a score. Tagovailoa was carted off the field with a concussion in the first half in Week 4 and did not play in Week 5 or 6. Waddle had a big Week 6, with six catches for 129 yards, but that came after two straight sub-40-yard games. A healthy Tagovailoa should mean plenty of targets for Waddle and a 59-plus yard day.

Pick: Jaylen Waddle OVER 58.5 receiving yards