Week 6 – NFL Sunday Prop Bets – 10/16/22

The “Game of the Year” scheduled for Sunday afternoon in Kansas City is no doubt the one we’ve been waiting for, but the Week 6 slate has several other intriguing matchups as well.

We have some familiar names among are picks this week, as Tom Brady and Saquon Barkley make repeat appearances from Week 5’s recommendations that went just 2-3. The remaining three picks come from two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL.

NFL Week 6 - Best Player Props for Sunday - 10/16/22

Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers, OVER 277.5 passing yards (-115)

Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants, OVER 71.5 rushing yards (-115)

Josh Allen, QB, Bills, OVER 294.5 passing yards (-115) and OVER 42.5 rushing yards (-130)

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles, OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-110)

Tom Brady at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m.

We’re going to double down on Brady after he threw for 351 yards against Atlanta last week, 67 more than we needed to hit that prop. It was his second game in a row over 350 yards after he completed 39-of-52 passes 385 yards against the Chiefs in Week 5. Brady threw for 278 or more yards 11 times last season.

The Steelers have allowed the second-most passing yards this year at 1438 and are sixth-worst in allowing 7.5 yards per attempt. This should be another 280-plus day for Brady.  

Pick: Tom Brady OVER 277.5 passing yards

Saquon Barkley vs. Baltimore, 1 p.m.

Barkley had just 13 carries in Week 5 but still ran for 70 yards against the Packers. Unfortunately, we had him over 78.5. Those 13 carries and 70 yards were both his lowest totals of the season. His previous low for yards was 72 against the Carolina Panthers in Week 3. Barkley ran for 146 in Week 1, 81 in Week 2 and 164 yards in Week 4.

He is now second the NFL with 533 rushing yards, and his 5.5 yards per carry ranks 10th among all rushers. Baltimore has allowed 5 yards per carry. If Barkley is close to his per game average of 19 carries a game, 72-plus yards is easily attainable.  

Pick: Saquon Barkley OVER 71.5 rushing yards

Josh Allen at. Kansas City, 4:25 p.m.

Allen had two huge games at Kansas City last season despite Buffalo losing both times. In the regular season, he only completed 15 passes but still threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran the ball 11 times for 59 yards and a score. Then, in the playoffs, he completed 27-of-37 for 329 yards with four TDs and ran the ball 11 times for 68 yards.

The Chiefs defense has allowed the 10-th most yards, 1,278, to opposing passers this season. They have also given up 12 passing touchdowns, tied with Washington and Tennessee for the most allowed. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 69.3% of their passes against K.C., which is the third highest, and the Chiefs have intercepted just one pass.

Allen has had a monster season thus far. He leads the league with 1,651 passing yards and ranks second with 14 TD passes, one behind Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes. Allen has thrown for 297-plus yards in all but one game. He has also run for 42 yards or more in four of five. Three times, he did both in the same game. We think this one will be No. 4.   

Pick: Josh Allen OVER 294.5 passing yards and OVER 42.5 rushing yards

Jalen Hurts vs. Dallas, 8:20 p.m.

The Cowboys can get after the quarterback, so Hurts should be on the run a lot Sunday night. Dallas averages four sacks a game, second-most in the league. Hurts is one of the most elusive QBs in the game, however, and the Cowboys can be run on. In Week 3, Giants QB Daniel Jones had nine rushes for 79 yards, the most he’s had all season. Hurts has gone over 50 yards rushing in three games so far this season after doing so eight times in 15 games last season. Jones is a good runner, but Hurts may be the best rushing QBs in the league, so we like his chances to get 50-plus yards on the ground against the Cowboys.

Pick: Jalen Hurts OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-115)