Week 4 – NFL Thursday Prop Bets – 9/29/22

Week 4 kicks off with Cincinnati hosting Miami on Thursday, and we’ll look to a couple of Joes this week for our prop picks.

There is a big unknown at this point for the game: Will Tua Tagovailoa be able to play through back and ankle injuries? If he doesn’t, it’s possible the Bengals don’t throw as much either because they get up big early or because the Miami offense proves to be far less lethal without Tagovailoa on the field. Teddy Bridgewater is a more than capable backup though, so there should not be a huge drop off in production.

Be sure to check back in a couple days for our best prop bets for the Sunday games and later in the week for another round of Monday night picks.

 

NFL Player Props for Miami at Cincinnati on 9/29/22

Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals, OVER 266.5 passing yards (-114)

Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals, OVER 88.5 rushing/receiving yards (-105)

 

Joe Burrow

Burrow is coming off a splendid performance against the Jets. He completed 23-of-36 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Most importantly, though, he remained on his feet for most of the game and was sacked just twice. That is significant because he was sacked six times the week prior and seven times in the season opener.

Miami has not generated much pressure on opposing quarterbacks, with just six sacks. The Dolphins have also given up the second most passing yards in the NFL, 893, and are allowing 7.3 yards per attempt.

If the Bengals offensive line can repeat its performance from Week 3, Burrow should have plenty of time to throw the ball and rack up 270-plus yards through the air. Burrow did not run much against the Jets, but he did have 73 yard rushing over the first two games, so a passing/rushing yards prop is a decent play as well in the 280-285 range.  

Pick: Joe Burrow OVER 266.5 passing yards

 

Joe Mixon

As noted above, Miami has been terrible at stopping the pass, so Mixon should have plenty of opportunities to catch the ball out of the backfield. The Dolphins’ defense has proven to be a little better against the run but just slightly. They rank 20th with 348 yards allowed and are tied for sixth worst in giving up 5 yards a carry.

Mixon is off to a slow start, averaging just 2.8 yards a carry, but he has had a decent number of rushes with 58. He is coming off an awful performance against the Jets in which he ran just 12 times for 24 yards and caught three passes for 14 yards. Mixon was reportedly a little dinged up in the game and did not see action in the fourth quarter as Cincinnati milked the clock with the lead. Instead, it was Samaje Perine getting eight carries for 41 yards that normally would have gone to Mixon. In the passing game, Mixon has been targeted 20 times and has 13 receptions for 103 yards.

Mixon had 145 yards combined in Week 1 against Pittsburgh and 83 the following week against Dallas. Look for him to have a bounce-back performance somewhere in between those two numbers as he asserts his dominance over a suspect Miami defense.

Pick: Joe Mixon OVER 88.5 rushing/receiving yards