Week 4 – NFL Sunday Prop Bets – 10/2/22

We have five more recommended player props for you heading into the fourth Sunday of the NFL season after going 3-for-5 in Week 3 with an early injury to Bears RB David Montgomery and a shocking zero TD passes by Rams QB Matthew Stafford against Arizona.

Don’t forget that Sunday’s games get started early in Week 4 as the Vikings and Saints play in London. We’ve got one prop for that game, three for the 1 p.m. starts and one an afternoon game.

NFL Week 4 Best Player Props for Sunday - 10/2/22

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints, OVER 52.5 rushing yards (-115)

Josh Allen, QB, Bills, OVER 282.5 passing yards (-125)

Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens, OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-115)

James Robinson, RB, Jaguars, OVER 51.5 rushing yards (-115)

Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos, OVER 67.5 receiving yards (-115)

Alvin Kamara

Kamara is coming off a 15-carry, 61-yard performance against Carolina in Week 3 and now gets to face a Minnesota team that has given up 413 yards on the ground this season. The Vikings 4.8 yards allowed per carry is ninth worst in the NFL, and they just gave up 87 yards on 20 carries to Detroit’s Jamaal Williams. In Week 2, Philadelphia’s Miles Sanders carried 17 times for 80 yards. Given that Kamara rushed for 53-plus in seven of 13 games last season and averaged 92.6 yards in the eight games he had 16-plus carries, this projection seems awfully low. We’re quite confident Kamara makes this pick a winner.  

Pick: Alvin Kamara OVER 52.5 rushing yards

Josh Allen

Allen threw for 400 yards in Week 3 and now gets to face the worst defense against the pass this season in the Ravens. Baltimore has given up 7.5 yards per pass attempt for 1,060 yards total through three games. Allen has thrown for 1,014 yards at a clip of 7.7 yards per attempt. How do those numbers not add up to a 300-plus yard outing for the Bills QB? Allen’s lowest output this season came in Week 1 when he completed 26-of-31 passes for 297 in Buffalo’s 31-10 win over the Rams. This game has the highest O/U of the week at 51, so expect plenty of offense and for Allen to throw for 290-plus.

Pick: Josh Allen, QB, Bills, OVER 282.5 passing yards

Lamar Jackson

Statistically, the Bills have one of the best run defenses in the league, allowing just 2.8 yards per carry to rank third. However, the three teams they’ve faced thus far haven’t had a lot of success on the ground at all this season. The Dolphins are third worst at 3.3 YPC, the Rams are fifth worst at 3.4 and the Titans are sixth worst at 3.5. Conversely, the Ravens are the third best rushing team with 5.6 yards per run, and Jackson has been a big part of that. He’s run for 100-plus in back-to-back games and is averaging 9.3 yards per carry. Jackson is unlikely to go for 100 again this week but 60-plus looks doable.    

Pick: Lamar Jackson OVER 55.5 rushing yards

James Robinson

Robinson ran for 100 yards in Week 3 against the Chargers after going for 64 against the Colts and 66 against the Commanders. The Jaguars travel to Philadelphia this week to take on the Eagles and a run defense that is allowing 5.4 yards per carry, third most in the league. Robinson is averaging 4.5 YPC and has a rushing TD in every game this season. It was thought Travis Etienne Jr. might cut into Robinson’s carries this season, but that hasn’t developed. Robinson has 51 rushes to 26 for Etienne. At some point, you have to recognize that Robinson is a back you can count on to exceed expectations, and he’ll do it again this week.  

Pick: James Robinson OVER 51.5 rushing yards

Courtland Sutton

Sutton has opened the season with 72, 122 and 97 receiving yards and has seen double digit targets each of the last two weeks. What’s not to like? Sutton has racked up the yardage even though Russell Wilson only threw for 219 yards in Week 2 and 184 in Week 3. This week, the Broncos head to Las Vegas where they’ll face a Raiders defense that has allowed the seventh most passing yards with 801 and seventh most yards per attempt at 7.3. The Wilson-Sutton connection has worked well in back-to-back wins for Denver, and we think that will continue against a suspect Las Vegas pass defense.

Pick: Courtland Sutton OVER 67.5 receiving yards