Week 4 – NFL Monday Prop Bets – 10/3/22

Monday Night Football travels to the West Coast in Week 4 with the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Los Angeles Rams. We’re going to bank on the home team’s running attack for our two prop picks this week after easily going 2-0 with RBs in Week 3. Read on below for those picks.  

Check back early next week for our two best NFL prop bets in the Thursday game, and later in the week there will be five picks for Sunday and two more for Monday.

NFL Week 4 Player Props for Monday — 10/3/22

Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, 49ers, OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-114)

Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers, OVER 29.5 rushing yards (-114)

Jeff Wilson Jr.

Regardless of what you think of the Rams run defense, the 49ers are going to run the ball and not give up on it easily. San Francisco is fourth in the league with 101 runs and sixth with 453 rushing yards. The Rams have been good against the run, but not so good that Wilson isn’t going to get 60-plus yards provided the touches are there. Los Angeles ranks ninth in both rushing yards surrendered, 281, and yards allowed per carry, 3.8.

Wilson had 12 carries for 75 yards against the Broncos in Week 3 after running 18 times for 84 yards against the Seahawks the previous week. That’s 5.3 yards a carry over his two games as the lead running back for the 49ers. Wilson has been pretty good catching the ball out of the backfield as well, with two receptions for 19 yards against Seattle and three for 31 at Denver. So, a combined yardage prop in the 70-73 yards range could be worth a shot. We’ll stick with his rushing numbers though.

Pick: Jeff Wilson Jr. OVER 55.5 rushing yards

Deebo Samuel

If you like Wilson’s chances running against the Rams, why not double down and go with Samuel, too? He has carried the ball 17 times for 111 yards through three games. Samuel had eight rushes for 52 yards in Week 1 against the Bears, then got 53 yards with just four runs in Week 2 against the Seahawks. He had 79 yards combined in Week 3 at Denver, but only tallied six yards on five runs.

Normally we’d recommend a rushing/receiving yards prop to bet on Deebo, but O/U 89.5 yards combined is too on the nose for our liking this week. The 29.5 rushing yards prop, however, is very enticing. In his final 11 games last season, including the playoffs, Samuel rushed for 30-plus yards eight times. In those 11 games, he faced the Rams three times and ran for 36, 45 and 26 yards. That last total was in the NFC Championship game in which San Francisco had just 282 total yards and only 50 yards came in the run game. Take Samuel for 30-plus with confidence this week.

Pick: Deebo Samuel OVER 29.5 rushing yards