Week 3 – NFL Thursday Prop Bets – 9/22/22

Week 3 kicks off with Cleveland hosting Pittsburgh on Thursday. The Elves … ‘er Browns … and Steelers are both coming off narrow losses in Week 2, but that is of little concern to us here. We’re all about player props. 

Week 2 was a good one as we went 6-3, including 5-for-5 on Sunday. Let's see if we can start off Week 3 a little better than last Thursday. There isn’t a whole lot to like about the Pittsburgh offense right now, so we'll look to the Browns quarterback for a prop again this week and one of Cleveland’s two excellent running backs to light up the Pittsburgh D.

 

Be sure to check back in a couple days for our best prop bets for the Sunday games and later in the week for another round of Monday night picks. You’ll find those articles and much more on our NFL Picks & Predictions page.

 

NFL Player Props for Pittsburgh at Cleveland on 9/22/22

Kareem Hunt, RB, Browns, OVER 64.5 combined rushing/receiving yards (-115)

Jacoby Brissett, QB, Browns, OVER 11.5 rushing yards (-115)

 

Kareen Hunt

An O/U of 64.5 combined rushing/receiving yards for Hunt versus a Steelers defense that ranks 22nd in the league against the run (128 yards a game) and 30th against the pass (275.5 yards per game) looks a bit low. The Steelers were the seventh-worst defense against running backs last season and are the 13th worst through two games this season.

In Week 1, Bengals RBs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine had 96 receiving yards combined against Pittsburgh. Mixon caught seven passes for 63 yards, and Perine caught three for 33. Mixon also had 27 carries for 82 yards. Week 2 saw Damien Harris rush 15 times for 71 yards and Rhamondre Stevenson gain 47 yards on nine runs. Harris also caught two passes for 16 yards.

Hunt is averaging 12 carries and three catches for 72 yards rushing/receiving combined through two games this season. In the four straight games where he got double-digit carries and at least two catches last season, he averaged 81.6 yards combined. We see no reason the Browns would go away from using Hunt just like they have the first two games, so look for a big day out of the sixth-year back.

Pick: Kareem Hunt OVER 64.5 combined rushing/receiving yards

 

Jacoby Brissett

As noted above, the Pittsburgh defense has not been particularly good thus far, and Brissett is coming off a decent performance against the Jets where he threw for 229 yards and a touchdown while completing 22-of-27 passes. It’s what he did in the run game, however, that we’re interested in this week. Brissett rushed six times for 43 yards with a long run of 21 yards near the end of the fourth quarter. Brissett ran four times for just 10 yards in Week 1 against the Panthers.

Brissett didn’t run a lot last year, but neither did Joe Burrows and the Bengals quarterback gained 47 yards on six rushes against the Steelers in Week 1. In the two years with Indianapolis when he was the starter almost the entire season, however, Brissett ran 63 time for 260 yards (2017) and 56 times for 228 (2019). He’s averaged 3.8 yards a rush for his career and has 13 TDs on the ground.

Given that Brissett can run and had success doing so in Week 2 along with the fact that he is facing a team that hasn’t done a good job of stopping the run, going for 12-plus yards on the ground seems likely. Also worth considering is for Brissett to go OVER 210.5 passing and rushing yards combined given Pittsburgh has also struggled to stop the pass.  

Pick: Jacoby Brissett OVER 11.5 rushing yards