We have five more recommended player props for you heading into the third Sunday of the NFL season after going 5-for-5 last Sunday. It’s a running back heavy week with three early games and one afternoon contest included. Two picks come from the Texans at Bears game and one each from Saints at Panthers, Ravens at Patriots and Rams at Cardinals.
Two more prop picks for the Monday night will be coming soon, so check back later for that post on our NFL Picks & Predictions page.
NFL Week 3 Best Player Props for Sunday - 9/25/22
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers, OVER 56.5 rushing yards (-120)
David Montgomery, RB, Bears, anytime touchdown scorer (+100)
Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans, OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-115)
Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens, OVER 57.5 receiving yards (-115)
Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams, OVER 1.5 TD passes (-175)
McCaffrey paid off on the OVER in Week 2 with 15 carries for 102 yards against the Giants. He also caught four passes for 26 yards. This week, he faces a New Orleans defense that has given up 273 rushing yards and slightly more than 4 yards a carry. McCaffrey had success in his only game against the Saints last season 24 rushes for 72 yards and five receptions for 65 yards. Run CMC’s workload increased from 10 caries in Week 1 to 15 in Week 2 showing he’s healthy enough to play a full-time role. At 0-2, the Panthers need a win in the worst way, and getting McCaffrey the ball often is their best shot at victory.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey OVER 56.5 rushing yards
Montgomery wasn’t the problem in the Bears 27-10 loss at Green Bay in Week 2. The fourth-year running back carried the ball 15 times for 122 yards and caught two passes for 14 yards, but he didn’t find the end zone. This week he gets to face a Texans defense that ranks third worst against the run with 326 yards allowed for 4.7 yards per carry. The game plan should call for a lot of running this week, especially if Chicago is able to get an early lead and we like Montgomery to reach paydirt for the first time this season.
Pick: David Montgomery anytime touchdown scorer
Let’s stick with the Bears-Texans game for another running back prop. Chicago’s defense has been bullied for a league high 379 yards on 75 carries. That 5 yards per carry is the eighth most in the league. Pierce ran 15 times for 69 yards in Week 2 against Denver after only going for 33 yards on 11 carries against Indianapolis in Week 1. Rex Burkhead did not have a carry against the Broncos after getting 14 against the Colts. Given Pierce’s success against Denver, we like the rookie rusher to carry the load again this week.
Pick: Dameon Pierce OVER 58.5 rushing yards
An O/U of 57.5 yards for Andrews after a nine-catch, 104-yard performance in Week 2? He was just six yards short of that number in Week 1 and surpassed it 12 times a year ago. Andrews has caught 9-of-12 targets for 82 yards in two games played against New England, his opponent this week. He had just two receptions for 21 yards at home against the Patriots in 2019. At New England in 2020, however, Andrews was targeted nine times and caught seven for 61 yards. The Ravens have enough weapons that the Patriots won’t be able to focus all their attention on stopping the giant target running down the field. Andrews goes for 60+ this week.
Pick: Mark Andrews OVER 57.5 receiving yards
Stafford faced Arizona three times last season and threw seven total TD passes with two in Week 4, three in Week 14 and two more in the opening round of the playoffs. Stafford didn’t have much trouble with the Cardinals even while with Detroit, throwing for nine TDs in his last four games against them. The Rams only got one touchdown in Week 1 against Buffalo, a 4-yard pass from Stafford to Cooper Kupp, but the offense came alive in Week 2. Three of Los Angeles’ four touchdowns were Stafford passes, two to Kupp and one to free agent signing Allen Robinson. The Cardinals have struggled defending the pass, giving up 604 yards and seven TDs, so there is little reason to think Stafford won’t have a big day.
Pick: Matthew Stafford OVER 1.5 TD passes