Week 3 – NFL Monday Prop Bets – 9/26/22

We are back to just one Monday Night Football game to choose prop picks from this week as the New York Giants host the Dallas Cowboys. A couple of running back props immediately piqued our interest, though. Read on below for those picks.  

Check back early next week for our two best NFL prop bets in the Thursday game, and later in the week there will be five picks for Sunday and two more for Monday. All of our free NFL picks can be found weekly on the NFL Picks & Predictions page.

NFL Week 3 Player Props for Monday — 9/26/22

Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants, OVER 22.5 receiving yards (-110)

Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys, OVER 38.5 rushing yards (-113)

Saquon Barkley

Barkley has caught 9-of-12 targets for 46 yards this season after catching 41 passes for 263 in 13 games a year ago. He caught 4-of-8 for 24 yards against the Cowboys in Week 15 last season and has averaged 37.2 yards receiving in his six career games against them. Take out his two-carry, one-target performance at Dallas in Week 5 when he was injured in the first quarter, and his averages against the Cowboys are six catches for just under 45 yards a game.  

Leonard Fournette caught two passes for 10 yards against Dallas in Week 1, but Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady only attempted 27 passes in the game, his fewest since Oct. 18, 2020. In Week 2, Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon was targeted four times and had three receptions for 26 yards. The Bengals’ porous offense line continued to struggle as Dallas sacked Bengals QB Joe Burrow six times and gave him little time to throw all day.

The Giants’ offense line has given up its fair share of sacks with nine so far, including six in Week 1. If Dallas can put pressure on Daniel Jones like they did against Burrow, Barkley should be a busy man catching short passes out of the backfield. We think both end up being true.   

Pick: Saquon Barkley OVER 22.5 receiving yards

Tony Pollard

Pollard had nine carries for 43 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati in Week 2 after gaining just eight yards on six carries in the season opener against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers and Bengals have been better than Pollard’s Week 3 opponent, the Giants, at stopping the run this season. New York has given up 4.9 yards a carry (10th worst in the NFL) for 239 yards thus far. Derrick Henry had 21 rushes for 82 yards against them in Week 1, and Christian McCaffrey amassed 102 yards on 15 runs.

Pollard had nine games in 2021 where he ran for 40-plus yards, and two of those games came against the Giants. He rushed for 74 yards on 12 carries in New York on Dec. 19. That was nearly an identical performance to his 14 carries for 75 yards a couple months earlier on Oct. 10. Ezekiel Elliott was heavily involved in both of those games, so his usage shouldn’t have a major affect on Pollards ability to get his yards.

Elliott’s 4.5 career yards per carry trails Pollard’s average of 5 yards a run, and last season Pollard’s 5.5 YPC was more than a yard better than Elliott’s 4.2. After a fully expected bounce back in Week 2, how much longer will it be before Pollard is handed the lead role in the Dallas backfield? It might not be this week, but he’ll still get his touches and go for 40-plus on the ground.     

Pick: Tony Pollard OVER 38.5 rushing yards