Florida vs Mississippi State Picks and Prediction – 9/21/2024

The Florida Gators (1-2) head to Davis Wade Stadium to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-2). Both teams are looking to rebound from recent losses, with Florida falling 33-20 to Texas A&M and Mississippi State coming off a 41-17 loss to Toledo. Dominate the college scene with our College Football picks.

Florida’s offense has shown some inconsistency, with DJ Lagway leading the passing game, throwing for 541 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Montrell Johnson Jr. has been a bright spot in the running game, racking up 166 yards and 3 touchdowns on 33 carries, averaging 5 yards per attempt. Elijhah Badger leads the receiving corps with 260 yards and a touchdown, but the offense overall has struggled to find consistent rhythm, highlighted by an average of 20.7 points per game. 

Defensively, the Gators have allowed an average of 34.3 points per game through three contests. They’ve struggled particularly against the run, giving up big plays and failing to get key stops. DJ Lagway’s turnover issues haven't helped the defense either, leaving them with poor field positioning. The Florida defense must tighten up, especially against a Mississippi State team that can hurt them both through the air and on the ground.

Mississippi State has leaned heavily on quarterback Blake Shapen, who has thrown for 834 yards, 7 touchdowns, and only 1 interception. His connection with top receiver Kevin Coleman Jr., who has 268 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, has been the core of the Bulldogs' offense. Despite the aerial success, the Bulldogs' running game has lagged behind, with Keyvone Lee leading with 88 rushing yards and a single touchdown. The Bulldogs have averaged 34 points per game, but much of that came against weaker competition.

On defense, the Bulldogs have also been vulnerable, giving up an average of 29.3 points per game. The run defense has been suspect, allowing teams to average over 160 rushing yards per game. Mississippi State’s secondary will be tested by Lagway’s ability to throw deep, but the primary focus should be on limiting Montrell Johnson Jr. in the ground game. 

Mississippi State’s more balanced attack and home-field advantage give them the edge in this contest. Florida’s defensive issues, combined with Lagway’s inconsistency, suggest the Bulldogs can exploit weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Expect Blake Shapen and Kevin Coleman Jr. to connect for big plays, leading the Bulldogs to a victory. Final Score Prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs win and cover 31-24.