Toledo vs Ball State Picks and Prediction – 1/18/2025

The Toledo Rockets (9-7, 3-1 MAC) visit the Ball State Cardinals (8-8, 2-2 MAC) in a Mid-American Conference matchup. Both teams aim to bounce back from recent losses, with Toledo falling to Akron 85-78 and Ball State losing to Ohio 86-71 in the last outings. Slam dunk your bets with our College Basketball picks.

Toledo has showcased strong offensive firepower this season, averaging 77.4 points per game while shooting 45.7% from the field. Sonny Wilson leads the team with 14.9 points per game, complemented by his team-high 3.4 assists. Sam Lewis contributes with 5.6 rebounds per game, adding depth to the inside game. However, defensive inconsistencies have been an issue, as the Rockets allow 77.7 points per game and have struggled in close contests, reflected in the recent loss to Akron despite solid scoring efforts. 

Defensively, Toledo has seen struggles in containing opposing offenses, allowing high field-goal percentages, and failing to capitalize on turnovers. Isaiah Adams leads the team in steals with 1.2 per game, but overall, the Rockets' defensive lapses, including rebounding inconsistencies, have exposed shortcomings that opponents have exploited. The ability to lock down the perimeter and control the boards will be vital against a balanced Ball State attack.

Ball State has relied heavily on the scoring ability of Jermahri Hill, who leads the team with 16.4 points per game while shooting 44.3% from the field. The Cardinals average 75.9 points per game and excel on the boards, led by Payton Sparks with 7.4 rebounds per game. The offensive rhythm, however, was disrupted in the recent loss to Ohio, where turnovers and poor shot selection limited the ability to rally from behind.

Defensively, the Cardinals are better than the record suggests, allowing 71.8 points per game and maintaining a strong rebounding margin. Jeremiah Hernandez and Ben Hendriks contribute with steals and blocks, respectively, but the team has struggled with defense against dynamic offenses. Limiting Toledo’s second-chance opportunities and containing Sonny Wilson will be critical in this matchup.

Toledo’s offense gives them an edge in this matchup. While Ball State has a solid defense, the Rockets’ ability to spread the floor and slightly higher shooting accuracy should allow them to control the pace. Expect Toledo to pull away late in a close contest. Final Score Prediction: Toledo Rockets win 79-73.