San Diego State at Nevada 1/31/23 - College Basketball Picks & Predictions

Last Updated: 01/30/2023 at 10:20 PM ET

The San Diego State Aztecs and Nevada Wolf Pack lock horns on Tuesday for a Mountain West Conference showdown. The San Diego State Aztecs (17-4; 8-11-1 ATS) improved to 8-1 in conference play following Saturday’s 72-51 thrashing of San Jose State. SDSU held the Spartans to 14 first-half points and never looked back, extending its winning streak to four games. The Aztecs committed a paltry three turnovers and made 46.6% of their field goals (5-for-16 from deep), but they also missed nine of their 22 attempts from the free-throw line.

SDSU is topping the Mountain West Conference, one game ahead of Boise State and two ahead of New Mexico, Utah State, and Nevada. The Aztecs are No. 22 in the AP Top 25 Poll, No. 23 in the NCAA NET Rankings, and No. 24 in the KenPom rankings. They score 113.8 points per 100 possessions (34th in the country) while surrendering 95.3 points in return (29th).

The Nevada Wolf Pack are coming off a 68-62 loss to UNLV. Nevada made just 36.4% of its field goals at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. The Wolf Pack struggled to execute on the offensive end and committed 19 turnovers on the night. Senior guard Jarod Lucas led Nevada with 15 points, fellow senior G Kenan Blackshear had 14 points, six assists, and five rebounds, while junior center Will Baker posted ten rebounds to go with a couple of points and assists. This trio is tallying 44.9 points per game for Nevada.

The Wolf Pack are No. 37 in the NCAA NET Rankings and No. 56 in the KenPom rankings. They score 111.2 points per 100 possessions (58th in the country) and surrender 97.4 points in return (48th). Per Bart Torvik, the Wolf Pack are 35th in the nation in turnover percentage (16.1%) and 27th in free-throw rate (39.1).

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Nevada loves to get to the foul line (27th in free-throw rate), and the Wolf Pack take good care of the ball (35th in turnover percentage). In their first meeting of the season, Nevada trailed SDSU wire-to-wire but ultimately managed to cover the spread. The Wolf Pack were down by as many as 22 points, and we are expecting to see a much better performance when Nevada host the Aztecs, who shot 50.0% from the field in that nine-point victory. Nevada is one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the nation (79.4%, 5th) which could be a key factor down the stretch. The Wolf Pack have covered the spread in six straight meetings with the Aztecs. Final Score Prediction, Nevada Wolf Pack win 73-67.