Dayton at Saint Louis 1/26/21 - College Basketball Picks & Predictions

By: Lance |

Last Updated: 01/25/2021 at 11:03 PM ET

The Saint Louis Billikens will finally be back in action when they host the Dayton Flyers. Saint Louis hasn’t played since beating UMKC at home on December 23, they improved to 7-1 on the year with the win and will no doubt be a factor in the A-10 if they can get some games under their belt. Dayton had a three-game win streak snapped with a 66-43 road loss to VCU, the Flyers dropped to 8-4 (4-3 conference). 

We can’t be sure how Saint Louis is going to look having not played in a month, but before the layoff, they looked like one of the best teams in the A-10. The Billikens are averaging 83.9 points per game ranking 15th in the country in scoring offense. Saint Louis has been one of the most efficient teams in the country shooting 51% from the field and 31% from beyond the arc, both ranking in the top-10. 

It’s a combination of experience and a solid freshman making immediate contributions, with 93% of the scoring returning from last year’s 4th place finish in the A-10. Senior guard Javonte Perkins is back after earning 6MOY honors last year, he’s improved his shooting percentage by 12% and leads the team with 17.8 points per game. Senior guard Jordan Goodwin is back and averaging a double-double with 16.9 poitns and 11.1 rebounds, he also dishes out a team-high 3.8 assists per game.

Dayton lost Obi Toppin, the Naismith POY, from last season so as expected have had a rather quick fall from grace, especially on the offensive end averaging 67.5 points per game ranking 273rd in the country in scoring offense. The Flyers have played at a much slower pace and are 331st in KenPom adjusted tempo. 

Without Toppin, they’ve leaned on what experience they do have returning in senior guards Jalen Crutcher and Ibi Watson. Watson came off the bench for a majority of last season but has taken on his bigger role averaging 15 points on 44.9% shooting. Crutcher is the main on-ball guard and is a great guy to have to control the offense, he’s dishing out a team-high 4.4 assists and the team’s leading scorer with 18.3 points.

Dayton’s slow pace of play has led to solid defensive numbers allowing 65.1 points per game ranking 59th in the country in scoring defense, while opponents shoot 42.5% from the field. The Flyers are 95th in KenPom adjusted defense. Saint Louis is allowing 64.5 points per game ranking 51st in the country in scoring defense and is 38th in KenPom adjusted defense. 

With Saint Louis out of play for a month now, there is a serious concern with rust and a slow start. Dayton had won three in a row before a road-loss to a stout defense in VCU and I think the Flyers will be able to keep this game close until the end. The question marks surrounding the St. Louis COVID situation is too much to overcome and win their first game back by double-digits. Final score prediction, St. Louis wins but doesn’t cover ATS 71-68. 

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