Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo vs UC San Diego Picks and Prediction – 1/10/2025

Cal Poly Mustangs (6-10, 0-4 Big West) face the UC San Diego Tritons (13-2, 3-0 Big West) in a conference showdown. Cal Poly comes in on a three-game losing streak, including an 85-54 loss to Hawaii, while UC San Diego has won 11 straight games, highlighted by a dominant 90-51 victory over Cal State Fullerton. Slam dunk your bets with our College Basketball picks.

Cal Poly has leaned heavily on Owen Koonce, who leads the team with 17.9 points per game while shooting 53.6% from the field and 89.1% from the line. Jarred Hyder is the primary playmaker, averaging 3.1 assists, and Koonce also leads in rebounding at 5.4 per game. The Mustangs score 82.4 points per game, but the defense struggles, allowing 85.4 points. Offensively, they shoot 46.1% from the field but must improve beyond the arc and limit turnovers to stay competitive.

Defensively, Cal Poly faces issues with perimeter defense, evident in 7.9 steals per game being overshadowed by giving up high-percentage shots. They average only 2.4 blocks, indicating a lack of rim protection. Isaac Jessup leads the team with 2.1 steals, and Mac Riniker provides limited help with 0.8 blocks. They must find ways to tighten the defense and slow down UC San Diego’s attack to avoid falling further in conference standings.

UC San Diego is powered by Tyler McGhie, averaging 18.7 points per game on 46.4% shooting and 88.5% from the free-throw line. Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones controls the boards with 5.3 rebounds per game, and Hayden Gray dishes out 3.1 assists. Offensively, the Tritons average 81.1 points while shooting 46% from the floor. They dominate on defense, allowing just 61.8 points per game, making them one of the most balanced teams in the Big West.

Defensively, UC San Diego thrives on turnovers, with Hayden Gray leading with 3.7 steals per game. Despite averaging only 1.7 blocks, Justin Rochelin anchors the interior. The ability to create pressure and convert steals into fast-break points has fueled the 11-game win streak. With a solid defensive core, they aim to neutralize Cal Poly’s scoring threats and maintain a stronghold atop the conference standings.

UC San Diego’s balance on offense and defense makes them the clear favorite. The ability to limit scoring while capitalizing on turnovers should prove too much for Cal Poly’s struggling defense. Expect UC San Diego to continue its dominant form at home. Final Score Prediction: UC San Diego wins and covers 85-65.