Boise State at San Diego State 2/25/21 - NCAA Basketball Picks & Predictions

The Boise State Broncos travel on the road to Viejas Arena to take on the #22 San Diego State Aztecs in a battle of two of the top teams in the MWC. Boise State has won four in a row with sweeps of UNLV and then Utah State on their home-floor improving to 18-4 (14-3 conference). San Diego State has won their last eight games and are fresh off a road-sweep of Fresno State to move to 17-4 (11-3 conference).

Boise State is a potent offense that is scoring 77.8 points per game ranking 55th in the country in scoring offense. They’ve been efficient in doing so, shooting 46.5% from the field and 35.1% from beyond the arc, 59th and 111th respectively. The Broncos are 59th in adjusted tempo and 48th in KenPom offensive efficiency. 

It all starts with senior point guard Derrick Alston for the Broncos, he’s scoring 17.7 points on an efficient 46.7/42.6/85.1 shooting line. Alston is third on the team in assists dishing out 2.3 per game. Fellow senior Abu Kigab leads the frontcourt, he’s scoring 12.8 points and is second in rebounding with 5.7 per game. 

San Diego State is a very much defensive-minded team but the offense has been solid this season as well, averaging 75 points per game ranking 91st in the country in scoring offense. The Aztecs can score from anywhere, they’re 17th in the country in three-point shooting knocking down 38.7% of their 23.5 attempts per game from three. Two seniors have carried the load, but the contributions of their deep bench can’t be understated.

Matt Mitchell, the senior leader in the frontcourt, leads the Aztecs in scoring with 15.1 per game, he’s also second in rebounding with 5.3 and third in assists with 2 per contest. Anchoring the back-court is fellow senior Jordan Schakel, he’s scoring 14.6 points per game and shooting a blistering 45.7% from beyond the arc on over 6.5 attempts per game.

The San Diego State defense is the pride of this team, they’re giving up 59.8 points per game ranking 6th in the nation in scoring defense. Opponents have been held to just 39% from the field, 7th in field-goal defense, and San Diego State is 17th in KenPom defensive efficiency.

Boise State hasn’t been quite as good on that end as the Aztecs, yet are a solid defense in their own right allowing 65 points per game ranking 49th in the country in scoring defense. The Broncos are allowing opponents to shoot 42.4% from the field and 31.4% from three, 139th and 70th respectively. Boise State is 64th in KenPom adjusted defense.