Arkansas vs Texas Tech Picks and Prediction – 3/27/2025

Arkansas comes into the Sweet 16 at 22-13 after knocking off Saint John’s 75-66 and Kansas 79-72 in back-to-back impressive wins. Texas Tech, 27-8, also handled business in the first two rounds, taking care of Drake 77-64 and UNC Wilmington 82-72. Both squads are coming in hot and ready for a physical West Region clash. Slam dunk your bets with our College Basketball picks.

Arkansas has been playing some of its best ball lately behind the steady play of forward Adou Thiero, who leads with 15.6 points and 6 rebounds per game. D.J. Wagner is pacing the Razorbacks with 3.6 assists, and the team has gotten clutch production in the postseason after closing the regular season with a tough 83-80 loss to Ole Miss. Offensively, the Razorbacks are dangerous when they speed up the tempo, but they need consistent shot selection.

Defensively, Arkansas allows 74.1 points per game and will be tested by Texas Tech’s physicality. Thiero also leads the team in steals at 1.7 per game, while Zvonimir Ivisic anchors the paint with 1.9 blocks. The Razorbacks shoot 54.8% from the field and 68.8% at the line. They'll need to lock in defensively and force turnovers to keep up in this one.

Texas Tech continues to ride its star JT Toppin, who’s posting 18.1 points, 9.3 boards, and 1.4 blocks per game. Elijah Hawkins is the engine, dishing 6.5 assists while adding 1.6 steals. The Red Raiders are deep, physical, and well-coached—proven in wins over Arizona and Baylor late in the year. They’ve won five of the last six and have been dominant at home.

On defense, Texas Tech holds opponents to 66.4 points per game and leans on physical play inside. The Red Raiders shoot 56.2% from the field and 70.2% from the free-throw line, with balanced production and rebounding making them hard to break down. The mix of elite interior presence and guard play gives them a major edge in this matchup.

Texas Tech is deeper, more balanced, and much better defensively. The Red Raiders allow nearly 8 fewer points per game and have a more reliable half-court offense. With JT Toppin controlling the paint and Elijah Hawkins setting the tone, Texas Tech has the edge on both ends. Final Score Prediction: Texas Tech wins and covers 76-68.