Alabama State vs Texas Southern Picks and Prediction – 3/13/2025

Alabama State Hornets (16-15, 12-6 SWAC) and Texas Southern Tigers (15-16, 12-6 SWAC) meet in the SWAC Tournament quarterfinals. Alabama State enters on a three-game win streak, most recently beating Grambling 59-47. Texas Southern has won back-to-back games, taking down Prairie View 80-68 in its last outing. This matchup is as tight as it gets, with ESPN Analytics giving Texas Southern a slight 50.7% edge. Slam dunk your bets with our College Basketball picks.

Alabama State has been finding ways to win close games, evidenced by one-point victories over Southern and Florida A&M. The offense averages 73.8 points while shooting 40.8% from the field. Amarr Knox leads the way with 15.0 points per game, while TJ Madlock pulls down 6.9 rebounds. The Hornets are the best when they control tempo and force mistakes, averaging 7.6 steals per game.

Defensively, Alabama State allows 72.9 points per game but has tightened up recently, holding Grambling to just 47 points in the last game. The Hornets need to improve on the boards, as they average 36.0 rebounds per game compared to Texas Southern’s 37.5. Jasteven Walker provides rim protection with 0.7 blocks per game, but the team lacks a dominant interior presence.

Texas Southern has momentum after a dominant 80-68 win over Prairie View. The Tigers’ offense is slightly more efficient, shooting 42.6% from the field and averaging 72.5 points. Kavion McClain leads with 13.9 points and 4.4 assists per game, while Kenny Hunter adds 5.5 rebounds. Texas Southern's passing has been key, averaging 13.6 assists per game.

Defensively, the Tigers allow 71.7 points per game and have been forcing turnovers, averaging 8.6 steals per contest. Kenny Hunter is the top shot-blocker with 1.1 per game, giving Texas Southern an interior edge. Rebounding and defensive efficiency could be the difference in this evenly matched showdown.

Texas Southern has the slight statistical edge, shooting better from the field (42.6% vs 40.8%) and distributing the ball more effectively (13.6 assists vs 11.5). The Tigers also force more turnovers and block more shots, which could be crucial in a game expected to be close. Alabama State has been playing well but will struggle if it cannot control the glass. Expect Texas Southern to win a grind-it-out battle. Final Score Prediction: Texas Southern Tigers wins 72-68.