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Kentucky Derby 2018 - Free Handicapping Picks, Odds, & Predictions

Posted on 4 May 2018 by Craig
kydrby144

USA Today Sports

Kentucky Derby 2018 vs. Churchill Downs

Horse Racing: 6:34 PM EST

May. 05, 2018

TV: NBC


On Tuesday morning, race officials held the draw for the Kentucky Derby. This will be the 144th running of the Derby, the first race of the coveted “Triple Crown.”

The field of 20 now knows where they will be leaving the post from. Justify the favorite at 3 to 1 drew post No. 7, which is excellent for the Bob Baffert trained thoroughbred.

Mendelssohn, an Aidan O’Brien-trained thoroughbred drew post No. 14, which is another strong post. His odds are currently 5 to 1. The first 10 posts drawn saw a couple of top horse picked but the only main one was Justify at No. 7.

Audible, who has been the fan-favorite, draw post No. 5, which is a friendly draw in this race for horses over the years. Audible, one of five Todd Fletcher-trained horses in the race has had good odds and currently sits at 8 to 1. His odds are likely to improve thanks to pulling the No. 5 spot.

Lone Sailor drew post No. 8 and Gayle Benson the wife of late New Orleans Saints owner Tom Benson and owner of Lone Sailor should be in attendance.

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The racing odds are against favorite Justify. No horse has won the derby without racing as a two-year since 1882 when Apollo Curse won. Justify and Magnum Moon at 6 to 1 are the only two thoroughbreds racing Saturday that could break that curse of 135 years.

In a race with a large field, the post positions make a great deal of difference at the start. One racing analyst calls No. 17 the dreaded post position as no horse that has left that post has won the Derby and just three have ever finished in the money. This year that distinction goes to Solomini a 30 to 1 long shot.

Posts 18, 19 and 20 have yielded a combined one winner, with nine finishing in the money. Vino Rosso is currently 12 to 1 and is the most likely to put an end to that trend on Saturday at No. 18.

While no owner, trainer or jockey wants No. 17, they all want No. 5. Ten champions have started from the No. 5 post and with current odds of 8 to 1 Audible is a good choice to add to the lore of No. 5.

Of course, what jockey is aboard the horse matters as well when it comes to post draws, Several jockeys prefer to remain outside while other prefer to race for the first turn from the middle.

Free Betting Pick: #11 Bolt d'Oro (8/1)

Playing against two favorites as #7 Justify doesn't have the seasoning with just 3-0 record and will be (3/1) or under and #14 Mendelssohn who tries to become first horse to hit the board after winning this UAE Derby. We won't leave the two favorites off our exotics but for a win wager we are looking for more betting value. Think #11 Bolt d'Oro (8/1) has perfect running style and pedigree to win at nice price.

$500 WIN - PLACE - SHOW: #11 Bolt d'Oro

$10 Exacta Box - #11 Bolt d'Oro, #7 Justify, #14 Mendelssohn, #18 Vino Rosso

$1 Trifecta Box - #11 Bolt d'Oro, #7 Justify, #14 Mendelssohn, #18 Vino Rosso, #6 Good Magic

$1 Superfacta Wheel - #11 Bolt d'Oro, #7 Justify, #14 Mendelssohn with #11 Bolt d'Oro, #7 Justify, #14 Mendelssohn, #18 Vino Rosso with #11 Bolt d'Oro, #7 Justify, #14 Mendelssohn, #18 Vino Rosso, Good Magic, with ALL

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