2024 Kentucky Derby - Picks & Predictions

Kentucky Derby Predictions

The 150th running of the Kentucky Derby, on the 1 ¼-mile oval at Churchill Downs, will take place on Saturday May 4 with post time at 6:57 PM ET. The last two “run for the roses” were upsets, including Rich Strike winning in 2022 with 80-1 odds. The morning line has Fierceness (5/2) and Sierra Leone (3-1) as the two favorites. Encino, who won the Lexington Stakes, was an early scratch on Tuesday and will be replaced by Epic Ride in the field of 20 thoroughbreds that follows. Make sure you stay up to date with all the horse racing action, with our expert horse racing picks.

1. Dornoch 20-1

2. Sierra Leone 3-1

3. Mystik Dan 20-1

4. Catching Freedom 8-1

5. Catalytic 30-1

6. Just Steel 20-1

7. Honor Marie 20-1

8. Just A Touch 10-1

9. Encino (Scratched)

10. T O Password 30-1

11. Forever Young 10-1

12. Track Phantom 20-1

13. West Saratoga 50-1

14. Endlessly 30-1

15. Domestic Product 30-1

16. Grand Mo the First 50-1

17. Fierceness 5/2

18. Stronghold 20-1

19. Resilience 20-1

20. Society Man 50-1

21. Epic Ride 30-1

Fierceness, who is the morning line favorite at 5/2 and dominated the Florida Derby, will be tough to catch down the home stretch if not extending too much energy leaving from the No. 16 post. Fierceness is the field's fastest and most talented thoroughbred and if he can run anything close to his time at the Florida Derby or run as well as the Breeders Cup Juvenile, this race will be for second place as he will win easily. 

Sierra Leone, who will leave from the No. 2 gate, is the best closer in the race but will have to have an excellent trip around the oval, which begins with a strong start out of the gate, but can not be blocked from reaching the first turn amongst the first group. 

Just a Touch will be another contender in this race. Just a Touch, who is the son of Justify, the winner of the 2018 Triple Crown, was second to Sierra Leone in an earlier race and cannot be overlooked. Dornoch, will leave from the rail and has the speed to stay with the pacesetters early. If Dornoch is able to get out front at the first turn he could be a threat to reach the winner’s circle with wire to wire victory.