Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall Picks and Prediction – 11/12/2023

By: Josh Obermeyer |

Last Updated: 11/07/2023 at 10:02 PM ET

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall 11/11/23 - UFC Picks & Predictions
Game Start: 11/12/2023, 3:00 AM UTC

On Saturday evening November 11th, Sergei Pavlovich squares off against Tom Aspinall in this Heavyweight Title Fight. The bout will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. Aspinall is two inches taller than Pavlovich, but will be at a large 6-inch reach disadvantage. Be ready for all the UFC action with our UFC picks.

Tom Aspinall comes into this contest with a fight record of 13-3-0, with 9 knockouts and 4 submissions. Aspinall has been on a tear since joining the UFC, going 6-1 through his first 7 fights. His only loss came against Curtis Blaydes where a freak accident took place that resulted in his loss. Aspinall was out for a year rehabbing, and eventually was back in the octagon exactly 1 year and 1 day since the freak occurrence. In that fight this past July, Aspinall knocked out Marcin Tybura in the first round. He was leading the fight 13-4 in significant strikes and 1-0 in knockdowns before finishing Tybura in only 1 minute and 15 seconds. It seems he has picked up right where he left off and is currently a slight favorite. Tom Aspinall fights out of the Team Kaobon camp.

Sergei Pavlovich has a fight record of 18-1-0 with 15 knockouts; he doesn't have any submissions under his belt and has never been finished via a submission. Pavlovich dropped his first ever right in the UFC, but has since run off 6-straight wins, all via knockout. All of Pavlovich's UFC fights have ended inside the first-round bell. He has dominant performance wins over the likes of some of the top Heavyweights in the world including: Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa, and Curtis Blaydes. His power has been unmatched so far, but the real question will be if he can wrestle with someone like Tom Aspinall. The big Russian Sergei Pavlovich fights out of the American Top Team camp.

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall Prediction

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall Pick Analysis

Our Free Boxing Pick for vs

Although this should be a barn-burner of a fight, this is merely a substitution that Dana White had to make. Due to Jon Jones injury, he was not able to fight Stipe Miocic for the belt, so Pavlovich and Aspinall step in for the interim title on Saturday evening. I believe Aspinall has the edge here, but the play is on this fight not going the distance. Between these two fighters, only 3 fights have gone to the bell, and they were all Pavlovich fights. The game plan should be pretty obvious for both fighters. Pavlovich will be looking to take advantage of his 6-inch reach by keeping Aspinall at bay with his jab, while Aspinall will be looking to get inside the guard and use his much-superior grappling and wresting skills. Aspinall picks up the win, but the play here is on the fight ending inside the first round and a half. Final Score Prediction, Under 1.5 total rounds.

Download the Picks and Parlays Mobile App

Get A free VIP Pick Daily!