Optimizer - Belmont Stakes 2012 Expert Handicapping Breakdown, Preview, and Free Predictions
The Coach Dwayne Lucas will send out Optimizer to try and defeat I'll Have Another for the third straight race. With bad performances in the Preakness and Kentucky Derby most experts thought Optimizer would skip the Belmont Stakes. But, these connections are expecting really big performance in the Belmont Stakes on June 9, 2012.
Optimizer will have morning line odds in the neighborhood of 50-1 and might even be higher at post time. At least the betting value is on your side if you like Optimizer in the Belmont Stakes.
Optimizer has raced 11 times with just one victory in a maiden race last year. Only half way decent race this year was a nice second in the Rebel Stakes in Mid March. Optimizer has career earning over $215,000 pretty impressive for colt that has only has 6 in the money finishes and no victories in any graded stakes.
Trainer Dwayne Lucas did masterful job getting this colt to even make the Kentucky Derby but since then has been drubbed in both first legs of triple crown. The Coach is not one to back away from a challenge, Lucas has told everyone that this colt just needs more distance which he will get in the Belmont Stakes. Lucas has not been able to find speed from Optimizer, Byer speed figures are no where near fast enough to compete in this class.
The breeding of Optimizer screams that turf is what this colt needs. Sire English Channel won nearly every prestigious turf race but had little to no success on the dirt. Damn Indy Pick had little success on the track because of injury but her sire AP Indy and grand sire Seattle Slew speaks for themselves. Sire side screams class and dirt but we have not seen those results for Optimizer.
Jockey Corey Nakatani keeps mount aboard Optimizer even after only finishing 6th first time aboard him. Nakatani needs to find more speed early to keep Optimizer closer than he has been in last two races. Big question is does Optimizer have turn of foot to do just that?
Optimizer Race History
|5/19/12||PIM||Preakness Stakes||6th||1 3/16 mile||1:55.94||85|
|5/5/12||CD||Kentucky Derby||11th||1 1/4 mile||2:01.83||83|
|4/14/12||OP||Arkansas Derby||9th||1 1/8 mile||1:48.71||74|
|3/17/12||OP||Rebel||2nd||1 1/16 mile||1:44.40||91|
|2/25/12||FG||Risen Star||9th||1 1/16 mile||1:42.96||75|
|1/16/12||OP||Smarty Jones||6th||1 mile||1:38.45||81|
Optimizer is more likely to finish in the bottom four than top four of the Belmont Stakes. Really feel like these connections should skip Belmont and point to mid summer Turf races. The breeding says turf in my mind and even with great betting value we won't be using Optimizer.